Musa Keilani

by Musa Keilani

The course of events in Iraq is following the same scenario that many Arab leaders, nationalists and writers had warned against prior to the US invasion of that country: The Shiites now want a separate Shiite federal state in central and southern Iraq.

Predictably, the demand has come from the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which consists of mainly pro-Iranian Iraqi leaders who occupy senior positions in the Baghdad government.

The bare bones of the developing situation are largely simple, but bear serious consequences for the entire region.

It was always feared that without a well-prepared mechanism in place to take charge of the country, the collapse of the Saddam regime - oppressive and brutal as it was - would definitely lead to a split of the country into at least three parts: A Kurdish north, a Shiite south and a combined but hazy central Iraq.

by Musa Keilani

The decision by the pro-Syrian politicians in Lebanon to reject Omar Karameh's move to resign as prime minister after failing to convince the opposition to form a national unity government shows that they are not willing to accept realities.

The Syrian domination of Lebanon is in its final moments and the sooner Damascus and its allies in Beirut accept that, the better for the future of the embattled country, especially in the aftermath of the Feb. 14 killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Their manoeuvrings to retain power have little chance of success if the game is played on a level field, such is the intensity of pressure that is being applied at all levels and in all aspects by the US and Israel from behind the scenes.

Obviously, the pro-Syrian camp has realised that it stands little chance of assuming power through the ballot box if elections are held in May. Their only hope to remain in a position of influence is to have their own man in charge in the run-up to the elections. They know that if they let go now, the person who would take charge would belong to the alliance representing Hariri supporters, the Druze community led by Walid Jumblatt and the Maronites led by Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir.

by Musa Keilani

It took Damascus ten years to the day to follow King Hussein's advice in 1994 to declare that Syria is ready for unconditional talks with Israel, as President Bashar Assad had just declared this week.

Israel is deliberately playing possum to Syrian overtures to revive peace negotiations since it knows well that at some point its bluff would be called and its desire for peace with the Syrians would prove to be hollow since it has no intention of returning any part of the Golan Heights.

The Syrian leadership has grabbed the opportunity presented by American pressure, direct as well as indirect, through the UN, for the departure of the 13,000 Syrian troops from Lebanon. It has already informed the US and the UN that it would complete the withdrawal in four to five months' time, but maintain some 3,000 to 4,000 troops on Lebanese territory. These soldiers will defend four Syrian radar stations in Lebanon and their terrain approaches, which is permissible under the friendship pact Beirut and Damascus signed in the 1990s.

by Musa Keilani

The Middle East is difficult for many to understand if only because of the many intertwining complexities and undercurrents that control the various players. To gain insight into the roller coaster events of the region requires a fair understanding of the Arab nature, culture, traditions, and way of political life, as well as the links between the Arabs and the West--particularly the United States.

Furthermore, a line has to be drawn between the rhetoric and behavior of Arab rulers, on the one hand, and the feelings of Arabs on the street on the other. Most Arab regimes are heavily dependent on the US for survival, and indeed, some of them are terrified of becoming American targets if they don't toe the US line. Therefore, most of the time, they end up being hypocrites for the sake of survival. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a classic example. While Arab regimes, like the man on the street, sympathize with the Palestinians, the regimes manage to achieve little politically to pressure the US into acknowledging and respecting the legitimacy of the Palestinian cause or to make a dent in the US-Israeli strategic partnership that renders impossible a just solution to the conflict.