Ottoman days in modern times

by Abdel Monem Said Aly

Two opposing factors have influenced Turkish foreign policy in the post-Ottoman period: the wish of Turkish elites to integrate their country into the imperial reach of Europe and the West; and a continued fear of disintegration. These two factors are highlighted now by the planned December meeting of European Union heads of state that will decide the possibility of Turkish accession to the EU one day. After the American war, Iraq's security is in shambles, and the possibility of its disintegration threatens every country from Iraq to Turkey.

The moderate Islamist government of Turkey has dealt with the desire for integration with Europe and the West by enhancing the secular traditions of Turkey; reducing the influence of the military establishment over domestic, foreign, and security policy; and taking daring steps to modernize the Turkish state. The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also moved closer to Europe by improving Turkey's relationship with Greece and taking a moderate position on the Cyprus problem.

However, the fear of disintegration cannot be laid to rest until there is stability in Turkey's immediate neighborhood. In fact, stability in Iraq is a precondition for preventing the possibility of a Kurdish state there that would spread chaos to the region in general and to Turkey in particular. The March Kurdish uprising in Qamishli, Syria has shown to what extent the Kurdish question is influenced by developments in Iraq. The ascent of Kurds in Iraqi politics inspired the Kurds in Syria to rise up, even though the Syrian Kurds are smaller in number and more integrated into Syrian life. What, then, might be the case for Turkish Kurds, who are much larger in number and have already had a bloody history with different Turkish governments?

In fact, the Turkish foreign policy objective of joining the EU cannot be achieved without stability in Iraq and, indeed, the Middle East. One of the main points of European opposition to Turkish accession to the EU has been always that Turkey will take the Union into the troubled waters of the Middle East. But the opposite point can also be made: Turkey hopes to bring to the European neighborhood an expanded area of stability and, possibly, prosperity in the Middle East.

In historical terms, Turkey will be playing the Ottoman days again at the beginning of the 21st century but in a completely different way. For four centuries (the 16th to the 20th), the Ottoman Empire was the military and strategic bridge between Europe and the Middle East. Now Turkey can be the socio-economic and cultural bridge between Europe and the Middle East. With secular, democratic, moderate Islamic credentials, Turkey can play constructively a role it played destructively in the past. The idea of a Turkish model to inspire the Middle East toward reformist salvation is widespread, thanks to the United States, in the circles of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party.

Risks in the Middle East can turn into opportunities in the eyes of the new Turkish elite. For them Israel is a risk, not an opportunity as the traditional Turkish military elite saw it in the past. Israel is a cause of instability not only on the Palestinian-Israeli front, but also in the Islamic world, where its actions and arrogance are fomenting anger, fundamentalism, and terror. Israel's harsh treatment of the Palestinians under its occupation makes it an embarrassment to Turkey's moderate Islamic government vis-a-vis its constituency.

More importantly, Turkey shares the suspicions of many Arabs over Israel's role in the American invasion of Iraq and the subsequent strengthening of the Kurdish factor in Iraqi politics. Turkey's fundamental objectives cannot be achieved through Israel. They can be achieved by standing closer to the EU on Arab-Israel conflict issues and by intensifying cooperation with regional powers to achieve stability in the region, especially in Iraq. Therefore Turkey is cooling its relationship with Israel in different ways and calling Israeli actions in Gaza a symptom of "state terrorism." At the same time, Turkey is warming its relationship with Arab countries, particularly Syria. The results of the Iraq War on the geopolitics of the Middle East continue to surprise all the experts!

-Published 22/7/2004