Brain drain and Iraq's bleak future

By Neil Stormer

Brain drain is robbing Iraq of its future even as war steals its present and obliterates its past.

Human capital flight, or "brain drain", is generally defined as the emigration of educated and talented individuals for other regions or nations. The underlying causes of this phenomenon are many, from health hazards to lack of economic opportunity and the desire for a more prosperous life. Conflict and political persecution are causes more noteworthy for the high volume of emigrations over a short period of time.

Generally speaking, the most significant brain drains have been from rural to urban areas and from less developed to more developed nations. In these countries, higher education and technical specialisation are commonly held to be a springboard to emigration from a nation marked by political oppression or a feeble economy. This has led to situations where, for example, enrolment at medical schools is high, but the nation suffers from a chronic shortage of doctors.

Brain drain is not new to Iraq; those Iraqis who could flee Saddam Hussein's dictatorship did. Whereas the brain drain Iraq experienced under Saddam could be attributed to lack of opportunity and state-sanctioned repression, the brain drain now crippling Iraq's rebuilding efforts is a result of hopelessness in the face of the violence plaguing the country.

According to The Washington Post, an Iraqi interior ministry official stated that the volume of Iraqis, educated or otherwise, travelling overland to Jordan every day has gone up fourfold - from 200 or 250 a day to 1,100 a day - since last July.

Educated Iraqis, including scientists, doctors and professors, who remain in Iraq have become target for kidnapping - one of the few growth industries in Iraq - or because of their sectarian affiliation. Those who joined the Baath Party under Saddam in order to secure career advancement are attacked by Shiites, while Shiites are under attack from Sunni Arab fighters seeking to weaken Shiite hold on authority.

According to one student still remaining in Baghdad, "the best professors are leaving the country and we are losing the best professionals; the real losers are the new generation of students - the future of Iraq".

The future is what is at stake. For developing countries, the principal cost of brain drain is the inability to capitalise on their investment in education - which is to say, an investment in training the subsequent generations of economic producers. A nation's commitment to the creation of a viable education system capable of replicating itself is rendered moot if the recipients of that education flee without passing it on to the next generation.

Thus brain drain, according to a Yale University study, constrains developing nations with lower productivity, decreased levels of technical skill, a disproportionately smaller tax base (because higher-educated, higher-earning workers pay more in taxes than they receive in services), and as medical professionals depart, higher infant mortality and a healthcare system incapable, in this case, of addressing Iraq's mounting medical needs.

The negative effects of brain drain, however, are partially offset by the benefits of remittances that emigres send home to their families. Remittances contribute to poverty reduction, and can also facilitate migration of poorer, less-educated individuals, thereby stimulating economic growth and providing new opportunities. Additionally, brain drain from one country equals brain gain - the sudden increase in trained and talented individuals - for another.

Iraq's neighbours are receiving the benefits of this influx of trained intellectuals, but the result is not all positive. Amman is experiencing inflated real estate prices partially due to the influx of Iraqis into Jordan. The sudden increase in Iraqi immigrants is also problematic. Officially, more than 800,000 Iraqis, many recent arrivals, are living in Jordan, a number that puts a burden on Jordan's already strained resources. Jordan and many of Iraq's other neighbours have, accordingly, tightened border controls. But this often does not stop the outflow of intellectuals from a nation in turmoil.

Many countries, while increasing restrictions on most would-be immigrants, grant preferential treatment to individuals with advanced degrees and specialised training. The "21st Century Technology Resources and Commercial Leadership Act", introduced by Republican Senator John McCain in 2000, was designed to help maintain America's technical superiority by giving preference to foreign nationals with secondary degrees in math, science, engineering or technology. Other nations have followed suit, a trend seen by some as "brain theft".

Instead of encouraging further flight, incentives must be created to help entice Iraqis to stay. This is no small task - as an increasing number of engineers, doctors, professors and others leave, the incentive for others to remain lessens. Those left behind know that the bleakness of the present will only multiply without an educated elite to lead the country through reconstruction and towards stability.

"We could end up with a society without knowledge," an Iraqi government official stated. "How can such a society make progress?"

The fighting will stop someday, the country will return to a state of normalcy. But by then, the emigres may not want to return - after having fled Iraq seeking peace, stability and prosperity, the prospect of returning to a country not yet rebuilding may not be tempting enough for them to come home. Without them, Iraq will remain underdeveloped and forever teetering on the brink of collapse.

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This article was published in the Wednesday, February 8, 2006 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.