by Michael Jansen

The withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence agents from Lebanon, due to be completed well before the parliamentary poll scheduled for May, will not effect a divorce of the two countries or extricate Syria from Lebanon's or Lebanon from Syria's politico-economic affairs. The two countries, artificially partitioned by France nearly a century ago, remain closely connected by a multiplicity of familial, political and economic ties which have never been severed in spite of the efforts of right-wing Maronite Christian elements who want nothing to do with Sunni Muslim majority Syria and are not prepared to admit that Lebanon has been more dependent on Syria than Syria on Lebanon.

Since Lebanon is bordered by Syria on three sides, Lebanese produce and manufactured goods as well as foreign goods in transit to the Arab hinterland have always passed through Syria. Syrian construction and agricultural labourers have been working in Lebanon for decades. Seven Syrian workers were employed in the construction of my house built in the Lebanese mountain village of Chemlan in 1968; the only local Lebanese who contributed were an ironmonger, a stone mason and a carpenter, all skilled professionals. Today, even these skilled workers may be Syrians.

Indeed, it can be said that before the 1975-90 civil conflict, Lebanon was built by Syrian labour and since the war ended, Lebanon is being rebuilt by Syrian labour. Syrian merchants have always deposited funds in Lebanese banks and done business with their Lebanese counterparts. Both cheap and quality Syrian goods have continually flowed into the souqs of Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon, while Syrian inlay furniture upholstered with Damascus brocade continues to grace the apartments and homes of grand Lebanese families. Lebanese and Syrians have intermarried at all levels of society.

Syria has long dabbled in the turbulent waters of Lebanese politics. Damascus provided aid to the opposition, led by Druze chieftain Kamal Jumblatt, against Maronite President Camille Chamoun when he sought to extend his term in 1958. Syria also backed the election of Suleiman Frangie to the presidency in 1970. Damascus intervened militarily in 1976 - with the blessing of Washington and Tel Aviv - to prevent the Joint National Front of Druze and Sunni militias and Palestinian fighters, again led by Jumblatt, from defeating the Maronite militias. Finally, with the tacit approval of the US and Israel, Syrian troops put an end to the Lebanese civil war in 1990 by ousting rebel General Michel Aoun and his military junta from the presidential palace at Baabda.

Since then, Syria has played an increasingly important role on the Lebanese political scene. Fractious Lebanese politicians who could not resolve their differences amongst themselves frequently took the road to Damascus seeking arbitration, and Syrian intelligence agents based in Lebanon interfered extensively in the country's internal affairs and, partnered by their Lebanese counterparts, carved out financial fiefdoms.

The closing down of such operations could prove difficult and could cost both countries millions of dollars from kick-backs and corrupt takings if these earnings are exported to safe havens abroad or laundered by means of external property deals. The flight of Syrian construction workers frightened by anti-Syrian sentiments expressed during "opposition" demonstrations could cost Syria a substantial proportion of the $1-2 billion a year in remittances as well as stall Lebanese reconstruction projects. The withdrawal of Syrian deposits from Lebanese banks could seriously harm Lebanon's financial sector struggling to reestablish Beirut as a regional banking centre. If tension between the two countries persists, both stand to lose investment and tourism.

Lebanon's slow economic recovery and Syria's gradual political and economic opening since Bashar Assad became president in 2000 has interacted in a positive way, producing benefits for both economies. Furthermore, in many ways, the close relationship Damascus fostered with Lebanon since the end of the civil war made Damascus more dependent on Lebanon than it had been before the conflict. But now is the time to create a certain political distance in order to preserve long-standing economic interdependence.

According to an article by Roula Khalaf in The Financial Times (published on March 21), "... analysts in Damascus say the expected removal of Syrian troops and intelligence services from Lebanon will pave the way for a more balanced relationship" between the two countries. She quoted Dr Nabil Sukkar, an independent economic consultant in Damascus, as saying: "If the political relationship is perceived to be more equitable, the economic relationship will be more acceptable."

Meanwhile, Damascus is struggling with serious negative politico-economic fallout from the assassination of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14. Sukkar told this correspondent last month that the rising tension between the two countries was very dangerous and should be defused as soon as possible. He said that the tense situation was harming Syria in two ways. Syria's European Union Association Agreement, initialled last year, has been "pushed back until the fall. It could have been signed in the spring. Now this has become a condition of Syria's leaving Lebanon".

In his view, this agreement will serve as a "catalyst" for the economic reforms Assad has been trying to effect since he came to office. The reformists can use the need to meet Syria's commitments under the association agreement to press for change, overcoming the objections of elements who seek to maintain the status quo.

"On our own, we cannot carry out the reforms, under pressure [from the EU] we are likely to succeed."

A politically and economically reformed Syria would also be a better partner for a more democratic and liberal Lebanon, particularly if Beirut carries out the provisions of the Taef accord by deconfessionalising the political system and tackles corruption.

This article was published in the Thursday, March 24, 2005 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.