They're all reforming under pressure

an interview with Hisham Kassem

BI: Which type of regime has an easier time reforming, republics or monarchies?

Kassem: It's difficult to generalize, because within the monarchies there are huge differences between the well established and veteran, like Jordan and Morocco, and the smaller emirates in the Gulf. In lots of cases the old monarchies have rigid structures that take years to adapt, as opposed to Qatar and Bahrain where things are much more flexible, there are no deep, entrenched traditions, the demographics are easier, and it's easier to reform. It really relies on the monarch.

As for republics, all Arab countries share authoritarianism, but there's no difference between Algiers, Egypt, Syria, or Tunisia. Nowhere is there a commitment to reform. They are reforming under pressure.

BI: All of them? Do you see instances of indigenous reform, or is it all due to outside pressure?

Kassem: In the last 10 years we've seen a continuous flow of political de-liberalization in Egypt and the whole region. We've seen five regime changes that failed to bring about any political liberalization. The new reforms only started after the shift in American foreign policy. You had a triangle: brutality of the regimes, apathy of the people, and the support of US foreign policy. One leg of the triangle had to be broken for any change to take place, whether in the monarchies or the republics.

BI: Let's take the Egyptian case. How do you assess President Mubarak's recent initiative to reform the presidential election system?

Kassem: It's not going to change the results of the next presidential election; the outcome will be the same. But it's a serious constitutional amendment, not something you can brush aside. However, there are loads of other issues such as the executive competence of the president--our constitution grants 63 percent of constitutional authority to the president--that haven't been addressed. Or the fact that I'm 45 and have lived all my life under martial law.

BI: Is the presidential election reform in Egypt a result of outside pressure?

Kassem: Look at the pattern of the 1990s, where village mayors and university presidents went from being elected to being appointed, the freezing of the syndicates, etc. In 1984 and 1987 the percentage of parliamentary opposition was much higher than it is today. So, yes, I can't see a commitment on the regime's part to reform.

BI: Your own party's existence has been jeopardized by the arrest of its head, Ayman Nour.

Kassem: The party still exists, the charges against Nour are trumped up.

BI: How do you assess the future of the reform movement in the Arab world?

Kassem: I'm optimistic for the first time. It's going to be a bumpy ride, I have no doubt, but I don't think there can be any regression. It's going to continue to require international pressure for some time because over the past two years we've seen the budding of local opposition in the entire Middle East, but it's still too young. This will still need the protection of the international community, otherwise there's going to be a backlash.

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- Published 10/3/2005 (c) bitterlemons-international.org

Hisham Kassem is chief executive office of al-Masri al-Yawm and vice president for international relations of the al-Ghad Party.