bitterlemons: Will the Gaza settlements eventually become assets to Palestinians?

Abdul Shafi: Absolutely. We are talking about a substantial size of land, some 35-40 percent of the total area of the Gaza Strip. The land is fertile for agriculture, and can be used for tourism and residential areas. The settlements in the center of the Strip, which stretch down to the south, lie along the main potential tourism beaches of Gaza. In addition, those settlements as well as the ones in the north are located above the only two underground fresh water reservoirs in the Strip. In terms of availability of water for agricultural production we are talking about the best locations.

bitterlemons: There are already some agricultural projects in these settlements. Do you think they should be maintained as they are or do Palestinians need to adapt them for their own purposes?

Abdul Shafi: The estimate is that there are around 2,000 greenhouses producing high quality export crops like flowers and cherry tomatoes. So definitely these can be transferred to the Palestinian side without much ado about what to do with them. Since more than 95 percent of the land is governmental land, there are several scenarios being circulated about what best to do with it. I think the best thing to do is to form cooperatives, so these lands can be transferred to them and maintained without interruption to production.

One major challenge is the issue of export of the products. As an interim solution, I think it would be wise to continue exporting them through Israel. It will not be easy in the short term to establish independent export channels from Palestine to the outside world. Establishing such channels will take time first because of the issue of access, but also because of the lack of know-how and ability to access foreign markets. So in the short term probably the Palestinians will have to negotiate with the Israelis about exporting the bulk of the products of these greenhouses through Israel.

bitterlemons: But this must necessitate a lifting of the siege on Gaza.

Abdul Shafi: The greatest bulk of Gaza's agricultural products have traditionally been exported through Israel, even in the years of the intifada. But the issue of lifting the siege and closures on Gaza is a general issue that needs to be addressed on the political level because it doesn't just touch on agriculture, it affects the whole economy. There will be no economic recovery unless Israel dismantles its closures and facilitates the movement of people and goods. So the issue of access is a general issue that needs to be addressed and if it isn't I see no real prospects of economic recovery, settlements or no settlements.

bitterlemons: These particular agricultural projects seem very water intensive. Is it not a problem to keep them as is, considering water scarcity?

Abdul Shafi: The problem of water in Gaza is also not only related to agriculture. It is a general problem that needs to be addressed at a high level. Population growth is one problem. Water is a big problem in the Gaza Strip whether it is for agricultural, residential or industrial use, and solving this issue requires investment in major and strategic projects such as water desalination plants, the water carrier projects bringing water in from Israel--the talk is in the first phase of having 5mcm water being transferred from Israel--and desalination of underground water, a project that needs to be tackled immediately.

With respect to agriculture one must balance the revenue that can be generated from exporting agricultural products against the issue of water. I think there is big potential for the Gaza Strip to access particularly European markets through cash crops like flowers, cherry tomatoes, strawberries and so on. And Gaza has the potential to become a main exporter of such products to Europe and the revenue will be important for the Gaza economy.

bitterlemons: What about housing in the settlements?

Abdul Shafi: I really don't feel that the existing housing units in terms of their number and size are sufficient to address the housing problem in the Strip. We are talking about around 1,500 housing units that will not serve the purpose and the needs of the Gaza population. What is needed in the Gaza Strip is social housing for low-income families, and we need housing projects for those who lost their homes during the intifada. We are talking about a completely different type of housing.

One proposal being circulated is that the existing houses in the settlements should be sold at market value to whoever can afford to pay and the revenues be used for the construction of low-income housing. I see no logical reason for using the existing housing stock in the settlements for low income housing in the Strip. I prefer using these areas for developing potential tourism projects. Again, we are speaking about the best chunks of the Gaza Strip.

bitterlemons: It seems that developing the infrastructure of the settlements will determine how the infrastructure of the Strip as a whole develops.

Abdul Shafi: Definitely. You need master planning for the Strip. For example, this land is very important for municipal expansion. Given the limited area of land in the Strip, municipal boundaries are being suffocated. Having this additional land will assist municipalities and councils to expand naturally. This is essential in the center, particularly Khan Yunis and Deir al-Baleh and also Rafah as well as in the north in Beit Lahya. This land will provide a kind of breathing space for these municipalities and towns.

bitterlemons: But the danger might be that they too become overcrowded.

Abdul Shafi: This is the problem of Gaza. The population growth is around 3.5 - 4 percent. But again, I would assume that with economic prosperity and better economic opportunities the population growth rate will gradually come down.

bitterlemons: In the short term, how important is the evacuation of settlements for Gaza's economy.

Abdul Shafi: In itself, the evacuation will not lead to economic recovery. It will only lead to recovery if accompanied by substantial political measures, particularly in terms of access and lifting the closure regime. Several international organizations have already highlighted this issue and we need only cite the most recent World Bank report, where the Bank clearly stated that without changing the closure regime there will be no economic recovery in the Gaza Strip. There can only be recovery if the private sector is confident that there is political stability, if the issue of access is resolved and third, if the Palestinian Authority really manages to reform itself and provide professional and credible management of these assets.

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- Published 28/2/2005 (c) bitterlemons.org. Used here with permission.

Salah Abdul Shafi is a Gaza-based economist.