'Abbas still walks a thin line'

by George S. Hishmeh

Marwan Barghouthi, the charismatic Palestinian leader who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli jail for his role in the Intifada, took a wise step last weekend in withdrawing from the presidential election next month, where he was in a neck-and-neck race with Mahmoud Abbas, a leading member of the Palestinian old guard and a favourite of the Bush administration and Israel. His praiseworthy decision helped put the Palestinian people back on track in their lifelong pursuit of an honourable settlement to their usurped homeland.

The 69-year-old Abbas, long-time heir-apparent of Yasser Arafat, who died in Paris on Nov. 11 of a mysterious illness, was saved a major embarrassment through the withdrawal of the young activist, who had originally agreed not to run since Abbas had been elected by their organisation, Fateh, as the chairman of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation.

Barghouthi and Abbas, according to recent opinion polls, were locked in a tight race, each favoured by about 40 per cent of the voters. None of the seven other challengers, including respected Mustafa Barghouthi, posed any serious threat to either.

There is no doubt that Barghouthi's withdrawal has denied the Palestinian people some excitement on polling day next month and possibly a first among Arab elections. At first glance, it appeared to mimic the Arab practice of assuring the leading, if not only, candidate the predictable yet farcical majority that always seems to exceed 95 per cent of the voters. But this is not a fair conclusion here. The election of Barghouthi, or should he have run a close second, would have sent a wrong signal about the emerging views of a majority of Palestinians who favour a settlement at the negotiating table.

"The level of support for reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis has never been higher," according to Dr Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. He wrote last Sunday in The Washington Post that "more than 80 per cent support a mutual cessation of violence and an immediate return to negotiations".

Haaretz, the Israeli daily, reported on Dec. 7 that, according to the Peace Index survey from the Tami Steinmetz Centre for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University, about 70 per cent of Israelis are more optimistic about the chances for reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians. It said that this explains the increase in the number of those who support holding negotiations from around two-thirds in recent months to the current level of 75 per cent. Even in the Likud, there's a pronounced majority of three-fourths that now supports such talks, compared to 60 per cent who favoured them in recent months.

But more significantly, a majority of Israelis - 53 per cent - think that Israel should help the new Palestinian leadership stabilise its rule with certain gesture to ease the lives of the Palestinian population, such as ending closures and removing checkpoints in the West Bank. However, the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon is moving very slowly in this direction.

The offer by Israel to withdraw for 72 hours, starting a day before the Jan. 9 election, from Palestinian towns, is insufficient. What Palestinians, especially Palestinian candidates, need is freedom of travel from one point to another, as expected from seekers running for office. The recent manhandling of Mustafa and his key aides at a checkpoint in the West Bank town of Jenin is despicable and unacceptable, and certainly no way to handle a tense situation which could easily touch off violence in the region. If anything, the Israelis should immediately allow Palestinians freedom of movement to allow genuine campaigning in this critical election.

Despite the withdrawal of Marwan Barghouthi, a loud voice for the younger activists, Abbas still walks a thin line. Whatever the level of support on election day, it is now generally recognised that his popularity is limited, a fact that may contribute to a limited term at the helm which, in great part, would also depend on Israel's behaviour, the attitude of the Bush administration and the level of support he will be receiving from his fellow Arab governments, where he has been in the last few days. And then, of course, there were the two bloody incidents from Hamas and younger radicals, a possible warning that he does not have a free hand, especially until the national election, next month.

This article appeared in the Friday-Saturday, December 17-18, 2004 edition of the Jordan Times. It is used here with permission.