Reasons for Optimism

by Gershon Baskin and Khaled Duzdar

There suddenly seem to be a lot of reasons for optimism on the

Israeli-Palestinian front. As the last four years have provided so few

opportunities for any optimism, it is important to jump on the current

opportunities and to highlight them.

The first reason for optimism is the very smooth transfer of government in

the Palestinian Authority following the death of President Arafat. IPCRI

for one, was not surprised by this smooth transition as we have been

speaking about the post-Arafat era for years in terms of at least two

periods - an interim period where the Old Guard leadership would smoothly

take over (with or without formal elections); and later a second period

where the young guard would position itself in the lead.

It is clear that the Abu Mazen - Abu Ala partnership has worked well in

creating a sense of stability. They have worked quite successfully in

engaging all of the Palestinian factions and parties in a dialogue aimed at

ensuring calm, leading to the elections on January 9, 2005.The most volatile problem on the Palestinian street is the potential for

infighting between the various parts and forces within Fatah. Even here Abu

Mazen and Abu Ala have consolidated the support of the Fatah Central

Council, the Fatah Revolutionary Council, the Fatah prisoners and

originally Marwan Barghouti for the candidacy of Abu Mazen for the position

of President of the Palestinian Authority and the Chairman of the Executive

Committee of the PLO.

The first round of Palestinian municipal elections for more than 20 local

governments will go ahead as planned on December 23, 2004. It now seems

quite likely that Legislative elections will take place in the Spring of

2005 and that the Sixth Fatah Congress, the first held in sixteen years,

will take place in August 2005. Palestine is heading towards real democracy.

The "death squad" unit of the Preventative Security Force in Gaza has been

officially disbanded, making this the first real step towards Palestinian

security reform. A British-run security operations room is functioning in

Gaza and working with the Palestinian security. Abu Mazen has already

stated that illegal and unregistered weapons will not be tolerated and that

the Palestinian Security Apparatuses will be the only people authorized to

carry weapons in Palestine.

Sheikh Hasan Yusef, one of Hamas's leaders from the West Bank, recently

released from Israeli prison, has begun to speak about the possibility of a

10 year Hudna with Israel as well as taking part in Palestinian political

life. He speaks about a new generation of Hamas as part of Palestinian

democracy, even being engaged in negotiations and peace making with Israel

"willing to live side-by-side with Israel." Talal Sidr, formerly a member

of Hamas, has declared his candidacy for the position of President of the

Palestinian Authority. It seems that even though Hamas is officially

boycotting the elections, it is expected that many Hamas sympathizers will

actually vote as an act of giving their voice in support of Palestinian

democracy. Perhaps the winds of peace blowing in Damascus also have lead to

new music being sounded within Hamas.

News reports are abounding with a new kind of "courting" between Prime

Minister Sharon and the new Palestinian administration. Every day there are

reports of quotes of people on both sides speaking about meetings,

coordination, and moving back into the Road Map. Sharon is speaking about

coordinating the withdrawal and disengagement with Abu Mazen after the

Palestinian elections. Abu Mazen is speaking about speeding up the time

table and getting back immediately into the Road Map - making the

disengagement part and parcel of Phase I of the Road Map together with the

reforms and unification of the Palestinian security apparatuses.

Foreign Ministers and dignitaries are back in the region shuttling between

Jerusalem and Ramallah. The most important of these are the visits of the

Egyptian officials, particularly Minister Omar Sulieman and the planned

visit of Steven Hadley, the incoming National Security Advisor in the White

House. They are talking about assistance for Palestinian elections, for

Palestinian security reform, and assistance for renewed Israeli-Palestinian

security coordination.

Things are moving forward. There is sudden talk about imminent improvements

in the Palestinian economy. Israel is preparing a series of actions to

enable Palestinian free movement leading up to the elections.

It is now time for both sides to take positive steps to strengthen these

new trends. Israel should remove check points throughout the territories.

Palestinian laborers should once again be given permits to work in Israel.

Palestinian businessmen and merchants should once again be granted free

movement. Palestinians should once again be allowed to use the Ben Gurion

airport for international travel which has been closed to Palestinians

since March 2004. Israel must immediately allow the Palestinians to reopen

the elections registration offices in East Jerusalem in order to allow them

to register to vote. Israel should reopen security contacts at the field

level to coordinate the eventual Israeli redeployment out of Palestinian

towns and cities (areas "a" and "b") for the elections and if this is

successful, Israel should begin to redeploy in positions held prior to

September 28, 2000, in accordance with Phase I of the Road Map.

The PA must also continue with the positive steps that have begun in the

security reforms including the removal of all illegal weapons. The PA

should also immediately remove all forms of incitement on official

Palestinian television and radio. Palestinian factions and political

parties, in addition to Fatah, should also begin their internal reforms and

democratization processes. The PA must conclude the legislative processes

of amending the Elections Law and the Political Parties law, which are

essential for Palestinian democracy prior to the elections.

These local steps must be supported with robust international involvement

and engagement. The international community must back the positive

developments with a real willingness to provide financial and technical

support for the rebuilding of a peace process. The international community

must also help to facilitate the rebuilding of the Israeli-Palestinian

political process by providing umbrellas and opportunities for real

re-engagement.

Both publics need now to regain their trust and confidence in the

possibility of peace. This can only be done by both leaderships taking

decisive steps towards rebuilding that trust and confidence. It is not time

for empty declarations, now is the time for action.

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Gershon Baskin is the Israeli Co-Director of the Israel-Palestine Center

for Research and Information (IPCRI), Khaled Duzdar is the Palestinian

Co-Director of the Strategic Affairs Unit in IPCRI - Jerusalem.

Source: IPCRI, November 29, 2004

Visit IPCRI website at http://www.ipcri.org/index1.html

Distributed by the Common Ground News Service.

Copyright permission has been obtained for publication.