by Judith Kipper

Washington - It's another summer of death and destruction in the Middle East. The latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza is history repeating itself. But, like other firefights over many decades, it will not resolve the problems behind the violence. There will eventually be a cease-fire, some kind of deal to exchange prisoners and a promise of calm, but for how long?

Israel's massive retaliation against Hezbollah has destroyed infrastructure and weapons, but it will not be the end of Hezbollah, which is an ideology expressed in a political party, a social welfare organization and a highly disciplined and well-trained militia. When the dust settles, without a solution to the core issues, Hezbollah can and will likely regroup with whatever infrastructure and weapons it can muster.

In Gaza, Israel can destroy the Palestinian Authority, but Hamas will still survive, even with many of its leaders captured or killed. Hamas, too, is a political party and social welfare organization with a military wing.

Since no amount of pain inflicted on Lebanon and Gaza by Israel is likely to result in the release of Israeli soldiers in the hands of Hezbollah and Hamas, an American-led diplomatic campaign becomes urgent. The Group of Eight as well as the Arab states have squarely blamed Hezbollah for this conflict. This sends a signal that the international community is finally fed up with Syria, the very last and only radical Arab state, and Iran, the dominant power in the region, using Hezbollah and Hamas as surrogates to disrupt, terrorize and thus set the political agenda in the region. Both Syria and Iran must be held accountable.

If the Bush administration has the strategic foresight to initiate a major diplomatic offensive, the tasks will be extremely difficult, but achievable. First, the United States in consistent and continuous consultation and cooperation with the United Nations Security Council members, the European Union, NATO and the Arab states, needs to communicate with all the parties, directly or indirectly, to get to a cease-fire.

Once a cease-fire is achieved and back-channel talks take place with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas as well as Israel, the real work begins. American diplomacy needs to work with others to develop a plan to rebuild Lebanon as soon as possible and to work with the Lebanese to achieve true reconciliation that will allow the Shiite of Lebanon to be integrated into the national political consensus. Only when Hezbollah feels secure within Lebanon will it disband its militia, allowing Lebanon to become a nation.

The second but most important component of an American diplomatic initiative is to use its full persuasive powers to resolve, once and for all, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This unresolved conflict is the core of the problems between Israel and Hezbollah, between Israel and Hamas and between Israel and the Arab states, which have unanimously and publicly stated that they will have normal relations with Israel when the Palestinian issue is resolved.

President George W. Bush, who supports a two-state solution, now has a unique opportunity to see a Palestinian state established before he leaves office. Israelis and Palestinians actually negotiated a detailed peace plan at the Egyptian resort of Taba in 2001. This historic achievement has been forgotten, but it is not lost. The White House needs to revive it, produce a "made in America" document based on Israeli-Palestinian agreements to submit to the parties to negotiate the final points and how to implement it. The Taba agreement is supported by the international community and the vast majority of Israelis and Palestinians.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert won his election by advocating withdrawal from the West Bank, preferably by negotiations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has advocated a negotiated two-state solution for decades and has condemned all forms of violence. These two leaders have the potential to resolve their conflict and ask for approval in a democratic referendum.

If Bush decides to go for it, he will need to ask the Congress to give him time and ask for the support of the Jewish and Arab-American communities. No one can refuse the president. It will take the president of the United States and others to prod, reassure, scold and comfort Israelis and Palestinians.

The president has made war. The question is: Can he now make a historic peace?

______________________________

Judith Kipper is a Middle East specialist with the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent research organization. This commentary first appeared in the daily Newsday. This article is distributed by the Common Ground News Service (CGNews) and can be accessed at www.commongroundnews.org.

Source: The Daily Star, 28 July 2006

Visit The Daily Star online: www.dailystar.com.lb

Distributed by the Common Ground News Service (CGNews).

Copyright permission has been obtained for publication.